There’s something interesting going on with the Best Rap Album category at the upcoming Grammys. Typically the award goes to an acclaimed, smash hit album (see most of Kanye West, Kendrick Lamar and Jay-Z’s wins), or an overdue veteran (like Killer Mike and Nas). This year, however, it feels like there’s not really a clear pick that fits either of those criteria, making the race a bit of a nail-biter, at least for now.
The front-runner might be Metro Boomin and Future’s “We Don’t Trust You,” for a few reasons. First, it’s arguably the biggest rap release of the year, topping the Billboard 200 and achieving three top-10 singles on the Hot 100, including the multi-week number-one “Like That” featuring Kendrick Lamar. And speaking of Lamar, another cause for support might be their involvement in the Lamar-Drake beef that took place this year. Voters will most likely be on Lamar’s side, considering they’ve adored him for years, so they might be inclined to also vote for Metro and Future to show support by proxy.
Also important is that neither Metro nor Future has won this category before, which might make them overdue in the eyes of the recording academy considering both have been pivotal in shaping modern hip-hop. The issue Metro and Future will face is that their album has mixed reviews, sitting at 64 on Metacritic. Not all winners in this category have been acclaimed, but if you look at the past decade or so, you’ll notice that most were. Still, exceptions have been made.
Eminem is one of the few artists to have won this category with mixed reviews (multiple times), so he might do so again with his newest, “The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace).” The record is far from Em’s most successful, but it was still a hit, topping the Billboard 200 and scoring the hit “Houdini,” which peaked at number-two. In comparison to “We Don’t Trust You,” “Death of Slim Shady” has two main disadvantages. First is that it wasn’t as impactful, only managing to produce one hit song and already ranking lower on the albums chart. Second is that Em’s record is sort of panned, with a critics’ score of 46. If voters are iffy on rewarding the Metro and Future joint because of its lack of acclaim, then that worry would be double with Eminem. Still, he is a rap legend, and voters might prefer rewarding him, especially with nostalgia for Slim Shady, over newer, trappier artists.
Another artist in the mix is Killer Mike, who is the defending champion in the category. He’s back this year with “Songs for Sinners and Saints.” While it got solid reviews, it wasn’t as acclaimed as his winning record “Michael,” and it’s unlikely that voters will choose Killer Mike again after already giving him his overdue win in the category, especially with an album that was less impactful and less beloved. That said, if voters don’t know who to default to, Mike might be a safe choice, and it certainly helps that he’s likely to actively campaign like he did last year for “Michael.”
A few other contenders might be more likely for a nomination than a win. Doja Cat’s “Scarlet” was generally well received and has the hits “Attention” and “Paint the Town Red” (both nominated last year), plus “Agora Hills.” 21 Savage’s “American Dream” might’ve faded a bit from the public consciousness, but it’s still one of the better reviewed rap albums of the year and includes the hit “Redrum.” Common and Pete Rock’s “The Auditorium Vol. 1” was acclaimed, and could fit the mold of an overdue veteran winner since Common has never won this category, even though the album wasn’t a big commercial hit.
There’s also Nicki Minaj, who is overdue for a Grammy (she hasn’t won yet in any category). Although “Pink Friday 2” will likely be tarnished by a couple of Minaj’s scandals from the past few years, the record is easily one of the biggest hits of the season, and she has been nominated plenty of times before, enough to make it clear that voters don’t dislike her. Perhaps with the release of “Pink Friday 3,” which is reportedly coming soon, Minaj can generate a lot more hype in order to finally take the golden gramophone. Last but not least, Megan Thee Stallion has had a great year with her “Megan” era. The album itself wasn’t widely acclaimed, so don’t necessarily expect her to win here, but goodwill for the 2021 Best New Artist champ could take her to a nomination.
2025 Grammy predictions: Album of the Year
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